Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from October 28, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 26, 2026 — +11.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$293.41 – $298.39Entry zone — fair-value band

$297.34Published — price the day we called it

$355.85Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$351.33Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$332.71Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 91% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+11.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+18.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$332.71

last close inside the window, ended January 26, 2026

Peak price

$351.33

peak on January 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 28, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$355.85

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$293.41 – $298.39

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$297.34

published October 28, 2025

Confidence

86%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC looks ready for a bounce as several price signals start turning up, while some are slower to react. The core story is strong: it leads in the most advanced chips. Fresh news that Apple plans to use TSMC's 2nm M6 chip in a 2027 iPad Pro points to steady demand and clearer visibility. With a generally positive market and top-performer status, a recovery is likely, though politics and order swings remain risks.

Primary drivers

Price looks beaten down, and the recent average price is starting to turn up
Leads in cutting-edge chip manufacturing, keeping an edge over rivals
Apple planning 2nm M6 chips points to steady orders in the coming years
Overall market mood is positive, which could help the stock recover

How it played out

TSM: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published TSM on 2025-10-28 at 297.34 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down price starting to turn up, leadership in advanced chip manufacturing, Apple planning 2nm M6 chips, and a positive overall market mood. It also named politics and order swings as risks.

Inside the 2025-10-28 to 2026-01-26 window, TSM rose but did not reach the 355.85 target. The peak was 351.33 on 2026-01-15, with a peak gain of 18.2%. It ended at 332.71. The thesis partially played out. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter revenue of $33.73 billion and guided for $34.6 billion to $35.8 billion in first-quarter revenue. On the same date, Axios reported that TSMC planned to open its second Phoenix fab next year instead of in 2028.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals