Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) — closed signal from July 12, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 10, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 19% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 12, 2025
Shares look reasonably priced at 14 times expected earnings, and sales of its smoke-free IQOS device are climbing fast. The share price has fallen a lot and now ranks highly among household-goods companies, so a move back up toward $196 is possible when new price updates and talk of the next dividend arrive. Europe rules and currency swings could hurt, so buyers plan to enter near $177-180 and sell in the mid-$190s.
Primary drivers
- Growing IQOS device sales now make up 40% of revenue, easing falling cigarette use
- Price and momentum signals hint the stock could rise after a long period of weakness
- Among similar consumer companies, it scores highly on value and steady performance
- A 5% yearly dividend and ability to raise prices help buffer economic and currency hits
How it played out
PM: thesis missed as target was never reached
Lyra published PM at $176.62 with 12% expected growth and a $194.21 target. The thesis pointed to IQOS sales at 40% of revenue, value and momentum signals after weakness, steady performance versus similar consumer companies, and a 5% yearly dividend. It also noted Europe rules and currency swings as risks.
Inside the window, PM peaked at $180.63 on 2025-07-16, a 2.3% gain. That stayed below the $194.21 target. The stock ended the window at $159.02 on 2025-10-10. The expected move did not play out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-22, Philip Morris reported second-quarter revenue of $10.14 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.91, according to Investopedia. The same report said smoke-free product volume rose 11.8% and sales rose 15.2%.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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