Track record · closed signal

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — closed signal from October 27, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSLA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$425.00 – $443.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$443.60Published — price the day we called it

$558.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$498.83Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$449.06Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$498.83

peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+12.5%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$449.06

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 27, 2025 – January 25, 2026

The thesis — published October 27, 2025

Predicted growth

+26%

over the measurement window

Target price

$558.94

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$425.00 – $443.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$443.60

published October 27, 2025

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Tesla's near-term story centers on a shareholder vote about Elon Musk's pay on Nov 6. If it passes with strong backing, it could remove a big worry that has weighed on the stock and spark a short-term bounce. The price looks beaten down, while interest seems to be improving. Still, the economy and execution remain uncertainties, so consider easing in rather than buying all at once.

Primary drivers

Shareholder vote soon that could quickly move the stock price either way
Stock looks beaten down, which can set up faster-than-usual rebounds
Recent interest and price strength appear to be improving steadily
If the plan is approved, a short-term bounce becomes more likely

How it played out

TSLA: thesis rose partway but missed the target

Lyra published TSLA at 443.6 on 2025-10-27 with 26% expected growth. The thesis pointed to the Nov 6 shareholder vote on Elon Musk's pay, a beaten-down stock, improving interest and price strength, and the chance of a short-term bounce if the plan was approved.

Inside the window, TSLA did rise, but not enough. It peaked at 498.83 on 2025-12-22, up 12.5%, and stayed below the 558.94 target. It ended the window at 449.06. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-06, Tesla shareholders approved Elon Musk's pay package, with more than 75% voting in favor. In January 2026, Tesla reported Q4 2025 deliveries of 418,227 vehicles.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSLA signals