Track record · closed signal

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) — closed signal from October 27, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

STOK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$33.09 Published $44.67 Target $29.46 Window close $37.34 Peak
$31.70 – $33.60Entry zone — fair-value band
$33.09Published — price the day we called it
$44.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$37.34Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$29.46Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 37% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$37.34
peak on January 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+12.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$29.46
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 27, 2025 – January 25, 2026

The thesis — published October 27, 2025

Predicted growth
+35%
over the measurement window
Target price
$44.67
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$31.70 – $33.60
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$33.09
published October 27, 2025
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Stoke's long-term results in Dravet show lasting gains in thinking and behavior. A well-known research firm kept its Buy view with a $35 target. The stock has been hit hard and sits near recent lows, so this may be an appealing entry before more data or a possible partnership. Biotech swings a lot, so keep positions modest. Improving investor mood and a steadier price could help a recovery over the next three months.

Primary drivers

  • Long-term Dravet results show lasting benefits in thinking and behavior
  • Analyst kept a Buy rating with a $35 price goal, supporting confidence
  • Share price looks beaten down, offering a potential value entry point
  • Investor mood is improving, which can support near-term gains

How it played out

STOK: the target was not reached

Lyra published STOK on 2025-10-27 at $33.09 for a short-term window ending 2026-01-25. The thesis expected 35% growth to $44.67. It pointed to long-term Dravet results, a Buy rating with a $35 price goal, a beaten-down share price, and improving investor mood.

Inside the window, STOK rose but never reached $44.67. The peak was $37.34 on 2026-01-07, a 12.8% gain. By the end of the window, it was $29.46. The thesis partially played out on the rebound, but it missed the published target and ended below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-16, Investor's Business Daily reported that Stoke had released third-quarter results on 2025-11-04, with revenue of $10.6 million and a loss of $0.65 per share. The same article said Stoke was collaborating with Biogen on zorevunersen for Dravet syndrome.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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