Track record · closed signal

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) — closed signal from July 12, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 10, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSLA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$313.51 Published $382.48 Target $413.49 Window close $470.75 Peak
$300.00 – $307.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$313.51Published — price the day we called it
$382.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$470.75Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$413.49Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 62 days.

Peak price
$470.75
peak on October 2, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+50.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$413.49
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
62
Window
July 12, 2025 – October 10, 2025

The thesis — published July 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$382.48
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$300.00 – $307.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$313.51
published July 12, 2025
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Tesla dropped 35% in spring but is starting to recover. Buying volume is picking up and a new self-driving taxi test in Austin has renewed excitement. The share price is near its recent average; when buying strength grows, the stock has often risen about 30% in the second half of the year. Still, pressure on profits and rules around self-driving add risk, so we prefer to buy under $307 and aim to sell around $375-380 if AI Day brings good news.

Primary drivers

  • Robotaxi launch could open a new customer base before the Aug 8 AI Day.
  • Unusually strong trading volume shows more buyers than sellers right now.
  • The stock has often gained about 30% in the second half of most years.
  • New 4680 batteries may cut costs and support profits during price cuts.

How it played out

TSLA: target reached in 62 days

Lyra published TSLA at $313.51 on 2025-07-12 with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to a recovery after a 35% spring drop, stronger buying volume, a self-driving taxi test in Austin, second-half seasonality, and possible 4680 battery cost support. It also named profit pressure and self-driving rules as risks.

Inside the window, TSLA reached the $382.48 target in 62 days. The peak was $470.75 on 2025-10-02, with a 50.2% peak gain. It ended at $413.49 on 2025-10-10. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On July 23, 2025, Tesla reported second-quarter revenue of $22.5 billion and operating income of $0.9 billion. On October 2, 2025, Tesla reported 497,099 vehicle deliveries for the third quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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