Track record · closed signal

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) — closed signal from October 27, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVAX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$8.35 – $8.95Entry zone — fair-value band

$8.71Published — price the day we called it

$12.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$10.13Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$9.17Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$10.13

peak on January 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+16.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$9.17

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 27, 2025 – January 25, 2026

The thesis — published October 27, 2025

Predicted growth

+42%

over the measurement window

Target price

$12.36

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$8.35 – $8.95

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$8.71

published October 27, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Novavax is cutting costs and simplifying the business, which can help the stock recover. It plans to hand its Gaithersburg site to AstraZeneca for about 60 million dollars, easing cash needs. A well-known bank started coverage with a positive rating and an 18 dollar target. The price has fallen hard, so even small good news can move it. Execution and demand remain risks, but a 3-month bounce looks possible as expenses come down.

Primary drivers

Handing the Gaithersburg site to AstraZeneca brings in cash and cuts costs
A major bank started coverage with a positive view and an $18 price target
After a big drop, any good news could draw in more buyers than usual
Tighter focus and lower expenses make the story cleaner and easier to trust

How it played out

NVAX: target was not reached

Lyra published NVAX at $8.71 on 2025-10-27, looking for 42% growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to cost cuts, a simpler business, the Gaithersburg site handoff to AstraZeneca for about 60 million dollars, a major bank's positive view with an 18 dollar target, and the chance that good news could draw buyers after a hard fall.

Inside the window, the stock rose, but it did not reach the $12.36 target. Its peak was $10.13 on 2026-01-22, a 16.4% gain. It ended at $9.17. The thesis partially played out on direction, but missed on the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVAX signals