Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from October 27, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$286.45 – $300.38Entry zone — fair-value band

$296.60Published — price the day we called it

$349.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$351.33Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$334.87Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 80 days.

Peak price

$351.33

peak on January 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+18.5%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$334.87

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

October 27, 2025 – January 25, 2026

The thesis — published October 27, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$349.05

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$286.45 – $300.38

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$296.60

published October 27, 2025

Confidence

90%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock has dipped, which can be a good time to buy a strong business. TSMC is launching 2 nm chips that use 25% to 30% less power, helping it keep a lead and charge fair prices. It supplies AI and high performance computing, and advanced packaging demand keeps factories busy. If tensions stay calm, a rebound in the next 3 months is realistic.

Primary drivers

2 nm chips use 25% to 30% less power, improving performance and efficiency
Critical supplier for AI and high performance computing customers worldwide
Recent price dip with improving buyer mood suggests a near-term recovery
Strong demand for advanced packaging lifts revenue per chip and margins

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 80 days

Lyra published TSM at 296.60 on 2025-10-27, with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to the dip in the stock, 2 nm chips using 25% to 30% less power, demand from artificial intelligence and high performance computing customers, and advanced packaging demand keeping factories busy.

Inside the window, the stock reached the 349.05 target. It peaked at 351.33 on 2026-01-15, for a 18.5% gain, and reached the target in 80 days. It ended the window at 334.87. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On January 15, 2026, TSMC reported record fourth-quarter results, including a 35% rise in net income and a 20% rise in revenue. The same day, Axios reported TSMC said it planned to open its second Phoenix fab next year instead of 2028.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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