Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from October 26, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 24, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$288.44 – $295.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$294.17Published — price the day we called it

$363.78Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$351.33Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$334.87Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$351.33

peak on January 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+19.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$334.87

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 26, 2025 – January 24, 2026

The thesis — published October 26, 2025

Predicted growth

+24%

over the measurement window

Target price

$363.78

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$288.44 – $295.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$294.17

published October 26, 2025

Confidence

90%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC looks strong at its core and the recent drop seems to be easing. Reports show it controls about 71% of contract chip making. Intel is losing money trying to copy this model, which highlights TSMC's skill and cost edge. It supplies top AI players, keeping demand firm. Over the next 0-3 months, aim for a rebound toward earlier highs, while keeping positions modest given market swings and geopolitics.

Primary drivers

Holds about 71% of contract chip making, leading by a wide margin
Builds chips for Nvidia and Apple, linking growth to booming AI needs
Price slide shows signs of calming, with buying interest returning
Intel's foundry losses show how hard this business is, favoring TSM

How it played out

TSM: thesis partly played out, but the target was missed

Lyra published TSM at $294.17 on 2025-10-26 with expected growth of 24%. The thesis pointed to about 71% share in contract chip making, Nvidia and Apple demand tied to artificial intelligence, signs that the price slide was calming, and Intel foundry losses as evidence of how hard the model was to copy.

Inside the window, TSM rose but did not reach $363.78. The peak was $351.33 on 2026-01-15, a 19.4% gain. It ended at $334.87 on 2026-01-24. The direction was right, and the move was strong, but the published target was missed. It partly played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-29, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC had begun volume production of its 2nm-class N2 chips in Q4 2025. On 2026-01-15, Tom's Hardware reported TSMC's 2025 financial results, including $122.42 billion in revenue and $55.13 billion in net income, plus planned 2026 capital expenditure of $52 billion to $56 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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