Track record · closed signal

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) — closed signal from October 25, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 23, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

JPM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$299.09 Published $333.48 Target $297.72 Window close $335.87 Peak
$295.33 – $298.30Entry zone — fair-value band
$299.09Published — price the day we called it
$333.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$335.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$297.72Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 72 days.

Peak price
$335.87
peak on January 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+12.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$297.72
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
72
Window
October 25, 2025 – January 23, 2026

The thesis — published October 25, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$333.48
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$295.33 – $298.30
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$299.09
published October 25, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

JPMorgan is a leading bank that could benefit as money conditions ease when the Federal Reserve slows its balance sheet tightening. It is also trying a new idea: letting big clients use BTC and ETH as loan collateral, which could draw more business. Sentiment is upbeat, though gains are calm. In the next few months, a modest lift and interest income are possible if the economy stays steady and loans stay healthy.

Primary drivers

  • Plan to accept BTC and ETH as loan collateral could attract big clients
  • More cash in markets as money tightening eases can lift big banks
  • Strong reputation and customer trust help profits stay steady over time
  • Share gains are slower now; stay alert to shocks in the wider economy

How it played out

JPM: target reached in 72 days

Lyra published JPM at $299.09 on 2025-10-25 with a short-term view for 12% growth. The target was $333.48. The thesis pointed to a plan to accept BTC and ETH as loan collateral, easier money conditions, JPMorgan's reputation and customer trust, and the risk that wider shocks could slow calmer gains.

Inside the window, JPM reached a peak of $335.87 on 2026-01-06, above the target, with a peak gain of 12.3%. It reached the target in 72 days. By 2026-01-23, it ended at $297.72. The thesis played out on the target, then the stock gave back the move by the end.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-07, Apple announced that JPMorgan Chase would become the new issuer for Apple Card, replacing Goldman Sachs. On 2026-01-13, JPMorgan Chase reported fourth-quarter 2025 profit of $13 billion and revenue of $45.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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