Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from October 25, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 23, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$294.17 Published $357.92 Target $334.87 Window close $351.33 Peak
$289.44 – $294.41Entry zone — fair-value band
$294.17Published — price the day we called it
$357.92Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$351.33Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$334.87Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$351.33
peak on January 15, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$334.87
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 25, 2025 – January 23, 2026

The thesis — published October 25, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$357.92
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$289.44 – $294.41
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$294.17
published October 25, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC's price looks worn down, and common signs suggest it may be turning up. Recent 6G test approval with EMTAR highlights that TSMC is still leading beyond today's AI boom. More chip makers are improving, which helps. In a friendly market, buying near the lower end of its recent range can work, and the odds improve if the price climbs back above the prior ceiling near $305, which would hint that a more durable upswing has started.

Primary drivers

  • The stock looks beaten down, so a bounce soon could offer a fair payoff.
  • New 6G test approval with EMTAR shows TSMC stays ahead in key chip tech.
  • Strong business basics, with AI and 6G trends likely to boost demand.
  • More chip stocks are firming up as the market improves, aiding momentum.

How it played out

TSM: strong rise, but the target was not reached

Lyra published TSM at $294.17 on 2025-10-25 with an expected 22% short-term rise. The thesis pointed to a worn-down price, a possible turn higher, 6G test approval with EMTAR, demand tied to artificial intelligence and 6G, and firmer chip stocks in a friendly market.

Inside the window, TSM rose as much as 19.4% and peaked at $351.33 on 2026-01-15. That stayed below the $357.92 target. It never got there. By 2026-01-23, the stock ended at $334.87. The thesis partly played out, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-09, TSMC reported 2025 revenue of 3.8 trillion Taiwan dollars and said full results were due on 2026-01-15. On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported fourth-quarter revenue of 1.04 trillion Taiwan dollars and net profit of 505.744 billion Taiwan dollars.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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