Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — closed signal from October 24, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 22, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$223.37 Published $268.04 Target $234.34 Window close $258.60 Peak
$220.00 – $224.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$223.37Published — price the day we called it
$268.04Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$258.60Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$234.34Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 79% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$258.60
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$234.34
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 24, 2025 – January 22, 2026

The thesis — published October 24, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$268.04
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$220.00 – $224.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$223.37
published October 24, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon's price and buying interest are improving ahead of earnings. A major bank just started coverage with a positive view, saying ads and grocery can help offset any bumps in the cloud business. An expected interest rate cut should help big tech names. If the stock pushes above recent highs, the climb could continue. Main risks: weaker shoppers, tight retail profits, and uneven demand in AWS.

Primary drivers

  • Price trend and recent average price look better, with stronger buying
  • New positive analyst view highlights ads and grocery as growth engines
  • Possible interest rate cuts could lift investor mood and valuations
  • Large-cap stocks may see steady automatic buying from investment funds

How it played out

AMZN: thesis partly played out but target was missed

Lyra published AMZN at $223.37 on 2025-10-24, with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to a better price trend, stronger buying interest, a new positive analyst view around ads and grocery, possible interest rate cuts, and steady fund buying in large-cap stocks. It also named weaker shoppers, tight retail profits, and uneven AWS demand as risks.

Inside the window, AMZN rose to a peak of $258.60 on 2025-11-03, a 15.8% gain. The target was $268.04. It never got there. The stock ended at $234.34 on 2026-01-22. Verdict: the thesis partly played out, but it missed the full target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-30, Business Insider reported Amazon's third-quarter results, including 20.2% AWS growth and advertising services up 24% to $17.7 billion. On 2025-11-21, MarketWatch reported a $38 billion, seven-year OpenAI deal tied to AWS backlog expectations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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