ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — closed signal from July 12, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 10, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 72 days.
The thesis — published July 12, 2025
ASML already has €39 billion of machines on order, about two years of sales, so future income looks solid. Talk of new export rules knocked the share price down about 10 %, bringing it to its recent average price just before results on 18 July. Orders from China are likely to pick up, and the stock is 15 % cheaper than its usual price-to-earnings level. Overall feeling among investors is upbeat, making this a well-timed buy for a possible summer rebound.
Primary drivers
- €39 billion backlog fills factory slots until at least 2026, ensuring steady sales.
- Only company selling EUV tools, plus new High-NA gear, lets ASML keep prices high.
- July results may show a jump in China orders; stock often rises ~6 % after reports.
- Shares are 15 % below their five-year average valuation after policy worries.
How it played out
ASML: target reached in 72 days
Lyra published ASML at 798.48 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to a €39 billion order backlog, EUV and High-NA tools, a possible rise in China orders around July results, and shares priced 15% below their five-year average valuation after policy worries.
Inside the window, ASML reached the 954.06 target in 72 days. The peak was 1057.12 on 2025-10-06, with a peak gain of 32.4%. It ended the window at 934.53, below the target but above the publication price. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-16, ASML reported second-quarter net bookings of €5.54 billion and said it could not confirm 2026 growth at that time. In September 2025, SK hynix placed an order reported at 11.9 trillion won for ASML EUV machines, with deliveries running through December 2027.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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