Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (ADR) (TSM) — closed signal from October 24, 2025
Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 22, 2026 — +11.1% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Came within reach: 97% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.
The thesis — published October 24, 2025
TSMC's price has dropped quickly and may have gone too far given the company's strong business. Investor mood is positive, and ASML said new orders more than doubled, hinting that demand for the most advanced chips is healthy, which benefits TSMC. A step-by-step buy plan on dips aims to catch a move back toward a more typical price as AI orders settle. Key risks: geopolitics and industry timing that could limit a rebound.
Primary drivers
- Sharp recent drop suggests the price may have fallen more than it should right now
- Buying interest is firm, with price strength drawing more attention from investors
- ASML's new orders more than doubled, signaling strong demand for chips
- Business remains strong, making step-by-step buying easier to justify
How it played out
TSM: target was missed after a 19.3% peak
Lyra published TSM on 2025-10-24 at $294.56, with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to a sharp recent drop, firm buying interest, ASML orders more than doubling, strong chip demand, and a step-by-step buy plan as artificial intelligence orders settled. The main risk named was geopolitics and industry timing.
Inside the window, TSM rose to $351.33 on 2026-01-15, a 19.3% peak gain. That stayed below the $352.53 target, so the target was never reached. It ended at $327.37 on 2026-01-22. The thesis mostly played out, but it missed the published target.
What happened during the window
On January 15, 2026, TSMC reported fourth-quarter revenue of $33.73 billion, up 25.5%, and net profit of $505.7 billion, up 35%. The same report said TSMC planned to open its second Phoenix fab next year instead of 2028.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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