Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (ADR) (TSM) — closed signal from October 24, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 22, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$294.56 Published $352.53 Target $327.37 Window close $351.33 Peak
$288.44 – $294.41Entry zone — fair-value band
$294.56Published — price the day we called it
$352.53Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$351.33Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$327.37Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$351.33
peak on January 15, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$327.37
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 24, 2025 – January 22, 2026

The thesis — published October 24, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$352.53
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$288.44 – $294.41
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$294.56
published October 24, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC's price has dropped quickly and may have gone too far given the company's strong business. Investor mood is positive, and ASML said new orders more than doubled, hinting that demand for the most advanced chips is healthy, which benefits TSMC. A step-by-step buy plan on dips aims to catch a move back toward a more typical price as AI orders settle. Key risks: geopolitics and industry timing that could limit a rebound.

Primary drivers

  • Sharp recent drop suggests the price may have fallen more than it should right now
  • Buying interest is firm, with price strength drawing more attention from investors
  • ASML's new orders more than doubled, signaling strong demand for chips
  • Business remains strong, making step-by-step buying easier to justify

How it played out

TSM: target was missed after a 19.3% peak

Lyra published TSM on 2025-10-24 at $294.56, with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to a sharp recent drop, firm buying interest, ASML orders more than doubling, strong chip demand, and a step-by-step buy plan as artificial intelligence orders settled. The main risk named was geopolitics and industry timing.

Inside the window, TSM rose to $351.33 on 2026-01-15, a 19.3% peak gain. That stayed below the $352.53 target, so the target was never reached. It ended at $327.37 on 2026-01-22. The thesis mostly played out, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On January 15, 2026, TSMC reported fourth-quarter revenue of $33.73 billion, up 25.5%, and net profit of $505.7 billion, up 35%. The same report said TSMC planned to open its second Phoenix fab next year instead of 2028.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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