Track record · closed signal

AppLovin Corporation (APP) — closed signal from October 24, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 22, 2026 — -15% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$614.19 Published $773.88 Target $521.94 Window close $738.01 Peak
$605.00 – $615.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$614.19Published — price the day we called it
$773.88Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$738.01Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$521.94Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 78% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-15%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+20.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$521.94
last close inside the window, ended January 22, 2026
Peak price
$738.01
peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published October 24, 2025

Predicted growth
+26%
over the measurement window
Target price
$773.88
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$605.00 – $615.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$614.19
published October 24, 2025
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AppLovin looks set for a possible catch-up move backed by a strong business. The stock has moved sideways, with the recent average price improving and investor enthusiasm high. Software sales rose 66% and cash generation is strong at 53.7%. Joining the S&P 500 should bring automatic buying from index funds. After a huge 5,500% multi-year rise, a push above the recent range could speed gains, but momentum looks soft and ads can be cyclical.

Primary drivers

  • Investor optimism is high and trading is heavier than usual lately
  • Software platform sales grew 66%, a strong sign of customer demand
  • Free cash flow margin of 53.7% shows the business turns sales into cash
  • S&P 500 addition brings automatic buying from index-tracking funds

How it played out

APP: the target was not reached

Lyra published APP at 614.19 on 2025-10-24 with a short-term thesis for 26% growth. The thesis pointed to high investor optimism, heavier trading, software platform sales growth of 66%, free cash flow margin of 53.7%, and expected index-fund buying after S&P 500 addition. It also noted soft momentum and cyclical ad demand.

Inside the window, APP rose but did not reach 773.88. The peak was 738.01 on 2025-12-22, a 20.2% gain. It stayed below the target. By 2026-01-22, it ended at 521.94. The thesis partly played out, then missed the full target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-05, AppLovin reported third-quarter results. Investors.com said the company earned $2.45 per share on sales of $1.41 billion and gave fourth-quarter sales guidance of $1.59 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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