Track record · closed signal

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) — closed signal from October 22, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 20, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SHOP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$160.00 – $163.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$162.30Published — price the day we called it

$202.88Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$182.19Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$144.50Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 49% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$182.19

peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+12.3%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$144.50

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 22, 2025 – January 20, 2026

The thesis — published October 22, 2025

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$202.88

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$160.00 – $163.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$162.30

published October 22, 2025

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Shopify's price trend looks healthy, and more buyers than usual are stepping in. Recent average price is rising, and coverage points to sales up 31 percent versus last year, with hints they could speed up. Mailchimp upgrades make the product stickier for merchants. With earnings on Nov 4, buying small dips before the report can make sense, but expect bigger swings around that day.

Primary drivers

Uptrend with strong buying; recent average price continues to climb.
Sales rose 31% from last year, showing steady customer demand.
Mailchimp upgrades deepen Shopify's tools and keep sellers engaged.
Earnings on Nov 4 may trigger sharp moves; plan position size carefully.

How it played out

SHOP: target was not reached by window end

Lyra published SHOP at 162.3 on 2025-10-22 with a short-term view for 25% growth. The thesis pointed to a healthy price trend, strong buying, a rising recent average price, sales up 31% from last year, Mailchimp upgrades, and earnings on Nov 4 as a possible source of sharp moves.

Inside the window, SHOP rose to 182.19 on 2025-10-29, a 12.3% peak gain. That stayed below the 202.88 target. It never got there. By 2026-01-20, the stock ended at 144.5. The thesis partially played out early, then missed by the close.

What happened during the window

On Nov 4, 2025, Shopify reported Q3 revenue of $2.844 billion and gross merchandise volume of $92 billion. On Jan 11, 2026, Barron's reported that Shopify announced a new protocol for shopping through Google Search and Gemini, and an update for Microsoft Copilot checkout. These were reported facts, not causes assigned to the stock move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SHOP signals