Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) — closed signal from July 12, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 10, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$229.06 Published $284.65 Target $279.90 Window close $306.47 Peak
$222.38 – $227.33Entry zone — fair-value band
$229.06Published — price the day we called it
$284.65Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$306.47Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$279.90Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 81 days.

Peak price
$306.47
peak on October 6, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+33.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$279.90
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
81
Window
July 12, 2025 – October 10, 2025

The thesis — published July 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$284.65
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$222.38 – $227.33
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$229.06
published July 12, 2025
Confidence
88%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC makes chips for almost every company working on artificial intelligence. Sales from these AI chips could grow about 45 percent each year, and the recent price dip to around $225-$230 gives investors a chance to buy before July sales numbers and August earnings come out. Construction progress in Arizona and fewer worries about supply problems may ease political fears. If the mood stays upbeat, the share price could climb to about $285 within three months.

Primary drivers

  • AI chip sales may rise 45 percent yearly, boosting profits and pricing power.
  • Two upcoming reports in the next 90 days could quickly move the stock upward.
  • Arizona factory progress and steadier supply cut political discount on shares.
  • Strong mood and price near $225 give a fresh buying chance with limited downside.

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 81 days

Lyra published TSM at $229.06 on 2025-07-12 with 25 percent expected growth. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence chip sales that may rise 45 percent yearly, two upcoming reports within 90 days, Arizona factory progress, steadier supply, strong mood, and a price near $225 as the setup.

Inside the window from 2025-07-12 to 2025-10-10, TSM reached the $284.65 target in 81 days. The peak was $306.47 on 2025-10-06, with a 33.8 percent peak gain. It ended at $279.90. The thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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