Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from October 21, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 19, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published October 21, 2025
TSMC looks beaten down but its business is strong. Leaders raised their 2025 sales outlook to roughly mid-30% growth, and Taiwan export orders jumped 30.5% from AI demand. Short-term price signs are starting to improve even if not all signals agree yet. With its lead in making advanced chips and clear orders ahead, the stock could bounce in the next 0-3 months with upside that likely outweighs the downside.
Primary drivers
- Company now guides to about mid-30% sales growth for 2025, showing strong demand
- Taiwan export orders rose 30.5% on AI demand, pointing to healthier sales
- Shares look oversold and may be settling into a stable range before rising
- Recent average price trend is turning up, while other signals are slower
How it played out
TSM: target was not reached
Lyra published TSM at 295 on 2025-10-21 with a short-term thesis for 22% growth. The thesis pointed to about mid-30% sales growth guidance for 2025, Taiwan export orders up 30.5% on artificial intelligence demand, an oversold share price, and a recent average price trend that was starting to turn up.
Inside the window, TSM rose but did not reach 358.93. Its peak was 351.33 on 2026-01-15, a 19.1% gain. It never got there. By 2026-01-19, the stock ended at 342.40. The thesis partially played out, because the price rose strongly but missed the published target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-12-29, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC had started volume production of its 2nm-class chips in Q4 2025. On 2026-01-15, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC published 2025 financial results and planned 2026 capital spending of $52 billion to $56 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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