Shopify Inc. (SHOP) — closed signal from October 20, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 18, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 41% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 20, 2025
Shopify is still growing well and the stock looks ready for a potential bounce. Sales rose 31% compared to last year, yet the share price is about 33% below its high for the past year. The price seems to have fallen too far and is now stabilizing, with stronger interest when trading volume picks up. If investors become more willing to take risk, the stock could move back toward its earlier price range over the next 1-3 months.
Primary drivers
- Sales up 31% compared to last year, showing demand is still strong and steady
- Shares are 33% below the past year's peak, leaving room to rebound
- Price action is firming up, and more shares are trading than usual
- Broad reach across online shops and in-person checkout tools worldwide
How it played out
SHOP: target was not reached
Lyra published SHOP on 2025-10-20 at $163.39 with 28% expected growth and a $209.14 target. The thesis pointed to sales up 31% from last year, shares 33% below the past year's peak, firmer price action with heavier trading, and broad reach across online shops and in-person checkout tools.
Inside the window, SHOP rose to a $182.19 peak on 2025-10-29, a 11.5% gain. It stayed below the $209.14 target. By 2026-01-18, it ended at $155.81. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose early, but it never reached the target and finished below the publication price.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-04, Shopify reported third-quarter results. Revenue was $2.844 billion, and gross merchandise volume was $92 billion. On 2025-12-10, Vogue reported that Shopify launched agentic storefront tools for brands to manage connections with artificial intelligence shopping platforms.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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