Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from October 20, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$293.41 – $303.36Entry zone — fair-value band

$300.59Published — price the day we called it

$359.74Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$351.33Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$342.40Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$351.33

peak on January 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+16.9%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$342.40

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 20, 2025 – January 18, 2026

The thesis — published October 20, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$359.74

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$293.41 – $303.36

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$300.59

published October 20, 2025

Confidence

88%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC makes the chips behind AI, and demand from big customers is strong. The company reported $33.1B in Q3 sales from GPU and high-performance orders, showing its advanced packaging is in heavy use. The price looks pressured after recent declines, but the recent average price is improving. In a mostly positive market, attention and automatic buying from investment funds could help it rebound over the next 1-3 months toward a prior ceiling.

Primary drivers

Q3 sales were $33.1B, driven by strong demand for AI and high-power chips
Price looks washed out while the recent average price is improving
More orders for advanced chip packaging are keeping factories busy
As a giant in chips, it draws automatic buying from investment funds

How it played out

TSM: thesis rose but target was not reached

Lyra published TSM at 300.59 on 2025-10-20 with a short-term thesis for 20% growth toward 359.74. The thesis pointed to Q3 sales of $33.1B, demand for artificial intelligence and high-power chips, busy advanced packaging, improving recent average price, and automatic buying from investment funds.

Inside the window, TSM rose but did not reach the target. The peak was 351.33 on 2026-01-15, a 16.9% gain. It never got there. By 2026-01-18, the stock ended at 342.40. The published direction worked, but the full target missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, TSMC reported record 2025 results and fourth-quarter profit growth. On the same date, Business Insider reported that TSMC had also announced a higher 2026 capital spending plan.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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