Track record · closed signal

Intuit Inc. (INTU) — closed signal from October 17, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 15, 2026 — -14.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

INTU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$645.00 – $651.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$650.69Published — price the day we called it

$780.83Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$689.17Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$554.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 30% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-14.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$554.58

last close inside the window, ended January 15, 2026

Peak price

$689.17

peak on October 27, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 17, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$780.83

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$645.00 – $651.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$650.69

published October 17, 2025

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Intuit is a strong company that seems temporarily out of favor, creating a buy-the-dip window. Two real product moves help: it teamed with Aprio to bring more AI support to business advisors, and QuickBooks can now accept a new Coinbase stablecoin for easier payments. With sentiment positive, these updates could aid a rebound over the next 0-3 months, as Intuit gains traction with mid-sized firms.

Primary drivers

Partnering with Aprio brings AI tools to more advisors, boosting service reach
QuickBooks adding Coinbase stablecoin payments makes paying and getting paid easier
Share price looks temporarily knocked down for a strong company, offering a dip
Well-known brand with many happy users keeps investor confidence on its side

How it played out

INTU: the target was not reached

Lyra published INTU at $650.69 on 2025-10-17, with an expected 20% move over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to a dip in a strong company, Aprio bringing artificial intelligence support to more advisors, QuickBooks adding Coinbase stablecoin payments, and a well-known brand with many happy users.

Inside the window, INTU peaked at $689.17 on 2025-10-27, a 5.9% gain. That stayed below the $780.83 target. It never got there. By 2026-01-15, the stock ended at $554.58. The thesis partially played out at first, then missed by the close.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-18, Axios reported that OpenAI and Intuit announced a $100 million deal to bring Intuit finance apps into ChatGPT. On 2025-11-21, Investopedia reported that Intuit shares rose after first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with adjusted earnings of $3.34 per share and revenue of $3.89 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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