Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) — closed signal from October 15, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$296.40 – $303.36Entry zone — fair-value band

$301.19Published — price the day we called it

$372.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$336.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$331.21Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 49% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$336.40

peak on January 13, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+11.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$331.21

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 15, 2025 – January 13, 2026

The thesis — published October 15, 2025

Predicted growth

+24%

over the measurement window

Target price

$372.47

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$296.40 – $303.36

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$301.19

published October 15, 2025

Confidence

91%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM could bounce over the next 0-3 months. The price trend looks to be turning up and trading activity shows far more buying than usual, even though one slower signal has not yet caught up. Fresh upgrades tied to Nvidia and bigger AI data center spending point to stronger chip demand. A trusted stock screen rates TSM highly. There are trade risks, but TSM's lead in chip making and improving mood support upside.

Primary drivers

AI spending needs TSM's most advanced chips, lifting orders
Price looks washed out but trend is starting to turn upward
Nvidia upgrade hints at stronger demand flowing to TSM
Heavier trading and strong quality score back the bull case

How it played out

TSM: target was not reached by January 13

Lyra published TSM at $301.19 on October 15, 2025, with 24% expected growth and a $372.47 target for the short-term window. The thesis pointed to heavier buying, a trend starting to turn upward, demand for advanced chips tied to artificial intelligence spending, a Nvidia upgrade, and a strong stock screen.

Inside the window, TSM rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $336.40 on January 13, 2026, with an 11.7% gain. It ended at $331.21, still below the target. The thesis partially played out on direction, but missed on the expected size of the move.

What happened during the window

On October 16, 2025, TSMC reported record July to September net profit of 452.3 billion new Taiwan dollars. On January 9, 2026, it reported 2025 revenue of 3.8 trillion Taiwan dollars and said fourth-quarter revenue was 1.046 trillion Taiwan dollars.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals