Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) — closed signal from October 14, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 12, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$286.45 – $291.42Entry zone — fair-value band

$291.72Published — price the day we called it

$334.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$333.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$331.77Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$333.55

peak on January 12, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+14.3%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$331.77

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 14, 2025 – January 12, 2026

The thesis — published October 14, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$334.57

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$286.45 – $291.42

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$291.72

published October 14, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is a straightforward way to benefit from growing demand for AI chips. The company's Q3 sales rose 37% compared to last year to $32.3B, showing customers are ordering more. Recent trading shows lots more people are buying than usual, which often supports steady price moves. Because TSMC makes the most advanced chips for others, buying near today's price aims to ride ongoing AI-driven orders.

Primary drivers

Q3 sales rose 37% compared to last year, reaching $32.3B, showing strength
Key manufacturer for the chips that power AI, widely relied upon
Buying interest has picked up recently, with stronger day-to-day demand
Investor mood is upbeat heading into the end of the year, aiding prices

How it played out

TSM: target missed after 14.3% peak gain

Lyra published TSM at 291.72 on 2025-10-14 for a short-term window ending 2026-01-12. The thesis expected 15% growth. It pointed to Q3 sales up 37% to $32.3B, demand for chips used in artificial intelligence systems, stronger buying interest, and upbeat investor mood into year-end.

Inside the window, TSM rose but did not reach the 334.57 target. The peak was 333.55 on 2026-01-12, with a 14.3% peak gain. It ended at 331.77. The thesis mostly played out on direction and size, but the target was missed. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion, up 40.8% year over year. On 2025-12-29, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC had started volume production of its 2nm-class N2 chips in 4Q25 as planned.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals