Track record · closed signal

Chart Industries, Inc. (GTLS) — closed signal from October 14, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 12, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

GTLS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$200.03 Published $210.03 Target $206.71 Window close $206.96 Peak
$199.00 – $201.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$200.03Published — price the day we called it
$210.03Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$206.96Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$206.71Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 70% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$206.96
peak on January 9, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+3.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$206.71
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 14, 2025 – January 12, 2026

The thesis — published October 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+5%
over the measurement window
Target price
$210.03
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$199.00 – $201.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$200.03
published October 14, 2025
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Chart Industries has an agreed cash buyout from Baker Hughes at $210 per share, already approved by shareholders. With the stock near $200, the remaining $10 gap offers a straightforward, deal-driven return if the transaction completes. Q3 results on Oct 29 are a checkpoint, but the agreed cash price helps limit downside. Trading activity has been steady, so buying close to $200 aims to capture the final step to the deal price.

Primary drivers

  • Deal to buy the company for $210 in cash is agreed and approved by owners
  • Share price near $200 leaves a clear, limited gap to the $210 buyout price
  • Oct 29 Q3 update is a check-in that could affect timing or market mood
  • Recent trading has been steady, suggesting buyers remain active and patient

How it played out

GTLS: target was not reached by the window end

Lyra published GTLS at $200.03 on Oct 14, 2025, with 5% expected growth and a $210.03 target. The thesis pointed to an agreed cash buyout at $210 per share, shareholder approval, a share price near $200, the Oct 29 Q3 update, and steady recent trading.

Inside the window, GTLS rose but stayed below the target. The peak was $206.96 on Jan 9, 2026, with a 3.5% gain. The target was never reached. The stock ended at $206.71 on Jan 12, 2026. The thesis partially played out, but it did not finish the move Lyra expected.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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