Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (ADR) (TSM) — closed signal from October 13, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$291.42 – $296.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$295.29Published — price the day we called it

$353.40Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$333.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$323.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 64% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$333.08

peak on January 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+12.8%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$323.63

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 13, 2025 – January 11, 2026

The thesis — published October 13, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$353.40

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$291.42 – $296.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$295.29

published October 13, 2025

Confidence

85%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC builds the advanced chips that power AI for top designers, and its factories are busy. The stock dropped hard, but trading suggests lots more people are buying than usual. The recent average price is rising, even if one slower gauge lags. Over the next three months, the shares could work back toward recent highs as demand stays strong and supply remains tight.

Primary drivers

Newest chip factories are near full, keeping prices and demand firm.
Shares fell hard recently, and buying activity has clearly picked up.
Investors are positive, and recent business results strongly back it up.
Key manufacturer for the biggest AI chip designers worldwide.

How it played out

TSM: thesis partly played out, but target was missed

Lyra published TSM at 295.29 on 2025-10-13 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to busy advanced chip factories, firm demand, tighter supply, stronger buying after a hard drop, positive investors, recent business results, and TSMC's role for major artificial intelligence chip designers.

Inside the window, the stock rose but did not reach the 353.40 target. It peaked at 333.08 on 2026-01-06, with a peak gain of 12.8%. It ended at 323.63 on 2026-01-11. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and net income of $14.77 billion. On 2026-01-09, TSMC reported 2025 revenue growth of 31.6% and fourth-quarter revenue growth of 20.6%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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