Track record · closed signal

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) — closed signal from October 12, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SHOP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$151.02 Published $178.20 Target $164.48 Window close $182.19 Peak
$147.00 – $154.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$151.02Published — price the day we called it
$178.20Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$182.19Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$164.48Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 16 days.

Peak price
$182.19
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+20.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$164.48
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
16
Window
October 12, 2025 – January 10, 2026

The thesis — published October 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$178.20
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$147.00 – $154.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$151.02
published October 12, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Strong company on a pullback. The price looks beaten down, but the overall push still points up, so easing in over time makes sense. Q2 sales grew 31 percent and profits improved. Recent comments (10-11) sounded more upbeat, even with leadership changes noted (10-10). If the overall market broadens out, the stock could rebound over the next 0-3 months. Small-business exposure and foreign currency swings are key risks. Patience helps.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks washed out, while upward momentum remains in place.
  • Sales grew 31 percent in Q2 and profits moved in the right direction.
  • Management tone improved on 10-11, which can lift investor confidence.
  • Leadership changes flagged on 10-10 add uncertainty and may slow progress.

How it played out

SHOP: target reached in 16 days

Lyra published SHOP at $151.02 on 2025-10-12 with 18% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a stock that looked washed out while upward momentum remained in place. It also cited Q2 sales growth of 31 percent, improving profits, a more upbeat management tone on 10-11, and leadership changes flagged on 10-10 as a risk.

Inside the window, SHOP reached the $178.20 target. The peak was $182.19 on 2025-10-29, with a 20.6% peak gain, and the target was reached in 16 days. It ended the window at $164.48. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On November 4, 2025, Shopify reported Q3 revenue of $2.844 billion, while earnings per share missed analyst estimates. On December 1, 2025, Shopify had a Cyber Monday service disruption that affected some merchant tools, and the issue was later resolved.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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