Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from October 12, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 10, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 47% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 12, 2025
Microsoft is a long-term AI leader that has pulled back. Short-term signs point to a possible near-term bounce, and buying looks stronger than selling as more of the market firms up. Morgan Stanley named it a top pick for AI spending (10-11), and new power for a San Jose AI data center (10-12) shows capacity is growing. The stock is not cheap, so we will buy in steps and want it back above its recent average price within 0-3 months.
Primary drivers
- Short-term signals look washed out, and buying interest is improving
- Named a top pick for AI spending by Morgan Stanley (10-11)
- Power secured for a new San Jose AI data center, enabling expansion (10-12)
- Buying in steps helps manage the risk of a still-expensive valuation
How it played out
MSFT: target was not reached
Lyra published MSFT at 510.01 on 2025-10-12 with an 18% expected gain and a 600.68 target. The thesis pointed to washed-out short-term signals, improving buying interest, Morgan Stanley naming Microsoft a top pick for artificial intelligence spending, and new power for a San Jose data center. It also noted the valuation was still expensive.
Inside the 2025-10-12 to 2026-01-10 window, MSFT rose to 552.69 on 2025-10-28. That was an 8.4% peak gain, but it stayed below 600.68. It never got there. The stock ended at 479.28. The bounce partly appeared, but the published target missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-29, Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $77.7 billion, up 18%, and profit of $30.8 billion. AP also reported nearly $35 billion of capital spending tied to cloud and artificial intelligence demand. The same day, The Guardian reported that Azure and Office 365 had an outage around the earnings release.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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