Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) — closed signal from July 10, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 8, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 28% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 10, 2025
Philip Morris shares are down about 9% and now look unusually cheap by one momentum gauge. Broker Jefferies just started covering the stock with a $220 goal, saying the company can keep raising prices and may soon get the green light to sell its smokeless IQOS device in the U.S. While investors wait, a near-5% dividend pays steady cash. If the price only returns to its May level around $198, owners could gain roughly 12% within three months.
Primary drivers
- Jefferies rates the stock a Buy with a $220 goal, saying the firm can keep lifting prices
- A U.S. health ruling due by September could let IQOS ILUMA begin selling nationwide
- The stock is unusually oversold and now sits near its average price, hinting at a bounce
- A roughly 5% yearly dividend pays shareholders while they wait for the regulatory news
How it played out
PM: target was not reached
On July 10, Lyra published a short-term PM thesis at 174.73. It expected 12% growth toward 192.12. The thesis pointed to Jefferies' Buy rating with a $220 goal, possible U.S. clearance for IQOS ILUMA, an oversold setup, and a roughly 5% yearly dividend while investors waited.
Inside the window, PM rose only to 180.63 on July 16, a 3.4% peak gain. It never reached 192.12. By October 8, the stock ended at 153.87. The thesis partially played out early, but the target missed and the window closed below the publication price.
What happened during the window
On July 22, 2025, Philip Morris reported second-quarter revenue of $10.14 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.91. The same report said smoke-free product sales were $4.2 billion, and the company raised its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to $7.43 to $7.56.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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