Track record · closed signal

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) — closed signal from October 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SHOP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$146.00 – $152.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$151.02Published — price the day we called it

$190.29Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$182.19Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$164.48Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 79% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$182.19

peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+20.6%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$164.48

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 11, 2025 – January 9, 2026

The thesis — published October 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+26%

over the measurement window

Target price

$190.29

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$146.00 – $152.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$151.02

published October 11, 2025

Confidence

65%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Shopify may be set for a bounce. The price looks washed out, and there are early signs buyers are returning. This week the company said sales grew 31 percent and it hired a new COO. Shares dropped on trade worries. Start small and consider adding if the recent average price turns up with more buyers than usual. Over the next 0-3 months, a rebound is likely if broader worries ease.

Primary drivers

Price looks washed out, with early signs that buyers may be stepping back in.
Sales grew 31% compared to last year, showing demand is still strong.
A new COO creates short-term uncertainty but does not change the long-term plan.
Recent drop from trade worries may offer a better entry price for investors.

How it played out

SHOP: rebound fell short of the target

Lyra published SHOP at $151.02 on 2025-10-11, with 26% expected growth and a $190.29 target over the short term. The thesis pointed to a washed-out price, early signs of buyers returning, 31% sales growth, a new COO, and a recent drop tied to trade worries.

Inside the window, SHOP rose but did not reach the target. It peaked at $182.19 on 2025-10-29, a 20.6% gain, then finished the window at $164.48 on 2026-01-09. The rebound partly played out. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-04, Shopify reported third-quarter revenue of $2.844 billion, up 32%. On 2025-12-01, Shopify had a Cyber Monday service issue that affected some merchant logins and point-of-sale access. Barron's reported on 2025-12-02 that the issue had been mitigated by Monday evening.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SHOP signals