Track record · closed signal

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) — closed signal from October 11, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

STOK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$30.19 Published $40.15 Target $32.85 Window close $38.69 Peak
$28.00 – $30.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$30.19Published — price the day we called it
$40.15Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$32.85Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$38.69
peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+28.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$32.85
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 11, 2025 – January 9, 2026

The thesis — published October 11, 2025

Predicted growth
+33%
over the measurement window
Target price
$40.15
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$28.00 – $30.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$30.19
published October 11, 2025
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Stoke's stock looks strong after new long-term results for its Dravet treatment showed lasting benefits. Lots more people are buying than usual, so it may be smarter to buy on dips instead of paying up after quick spikes. Shares climbed about 20 percent this week, hinting at a sturdier price base. If interest stays high and more study updates arrive over the next 0-3 months, the move could continue.

Primary drivers

  • Strong upward trend with many buyers and a firm recent average price
  • Encouraging long-term results for zorevunersen in Dravet syndrome
  • Stock rose about 20 percent this week, showing rising confidence
  • A steady flow of future study updates can keep attention and support shares

How it played out

STOK: strong move fell short of the target

Lyra published STOK at $30.19 on 2025-10-11 with expected growth of 33 percent. The thesis pointed to a strong upward trend, many buyers, encouraging long-term zorevunersen results in Dravet syndrome, and a stock rise of about 20 percent that week. It also said more study updates over the next 0-3 months could keep attention on the shares.

Inside the window, STOK rose to $38.69 on 2025-10-16, a peak gain of 28.2 percent. That stayed below the $40.15 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $32.85. The thesis partly played out.

What happened during the window

On Dec. 16, 2025, Investor's Business Daily reported that Stoke had released third-quarter results on Nov. 4, with revenue up 117 percent to $10.6 million and a loss of $0.65 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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