Track record · closed signal

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — closed signal from October 9, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 7, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ASML price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$971.55 – $986.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$981.14Published — price the day we called it

$1,234.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,246.38Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$1,228.47Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 88 days.

Peak price

$1,246.38

peak on January 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+27%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$1,228.47

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

October 9, 2025 – January 7, 2026

The thesis — published October 9, 2025

Predicted growth

+26%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,234.05

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$971.55 – $986.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$981.14

published October 9, 2025

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

ASML looks temporarily beaten down, yet it owns a hard-to-copy advantage. Some chart signals suggest the price got too weak and buyers may be returning. On 2025-10-09 the company named a new CTO and reminded investors it is the only source for advanced EUV tools. Over the next 0-3 months, a bounce is likely as AI-related factory spending continues, though government limits on exports could pressure results. Plan entries with clear risk limits.

Primary drivers

Price looks unusually weak, while buying interest appears to be returning
ASML is the only maker of top EUV tools, so big chipmakers must buy from it
New tech leader signals steady strategy and keeps core expertise in-house
Ongoing AI-related factory spending should keep orders and revenue healthy

How it played out

ASML: target reached in 88 days

Lyra published ASML at 981.14 on 2025-10-09 with expected growth of 26%. The thesis pointed to a price that looked unusually weak, returning buying interest, ASML's role as the only maker of top EUV tools, a new tech leader, and factory spending tied to artificial intelligence.

Inside the window, ASML reached a peak of 1246.38 on 2026-01-06. That was above the 1234.05 target, and the target was reached in 88 days. The stock ended the window at 1228.47. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-15, ASML reported third-quarter results, including net bookings of 5.4 billion euros. On the same date, coverage of the report said ASML expected 2026 sales not to fall below 2025 levels, while China sales were expected to decline significantly.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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