Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from October 8, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 6, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 59% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 8, 2025
TSMC looks strong because the price trend is up, the recent average price is rising, and there is lots more buying than usual. A major bank expects the company to raise its outlook on Oct 16, tied to growing demand for AI and powerful computing chips. The business looks healthy with no clear red flags, which boosts confidence. Buying near the suggested range aims at a 0-3 month move as factory use and pricing stay steady.
Primary drivers
- Price trend is firm and the recent average price is rising
- Possible upbeat company outlook on Oct 16
- AI and high-performance chip demand is boosting orders
- Lots more people are buying than usual, showing strong interest
How it played out
TSM: target not reached by window end
Lyra published TSM at 297.8 on 2025-10-08, with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to a firm price trend, a rising recent average price, heavier buying than usual, a possible upbeat company outlook on Oct 16, and demand for artificial intelligence and high-performance chips.
Inside the window, TSM rose but stayed below the 356.39 target. The peak was 333.08 on 2026-01-06, with a peak gain of 11.8%. It ended at 327.43. The thesis partially played out on direction, but it missed the target. It never got there.
What happened during the window
On Oct 16, 2025, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $32.2 billion to $33.4 billion. The report also said demand for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing customers remained strong.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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