Track record · closed signal

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) — closed signal from October 7, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 5, 2026 — -22.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NFLX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$118.41 Published $13.97 Target $91.46 Window close $124.86 Peak
$11.50 – $11.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$118.41Published — price the day we called it
$13.97Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$124.86Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$91.46Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 30% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-22.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+5.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$91.46
last close inside the window, ended January 5, 2026
Peak price
$124.86
peak on October 21, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published October 7, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$13.97
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$11.50 – $11.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$118.41
published October 7, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Netflix looks ready for a short-term rebound after a sharp pullback, with signs the drop may be easing. Fresh news: Seaport Research raised its view to Buy with a $1,385 target, which can draw more attention in the near term. The paid password-sharing plan and the ad-supported plan are improving how it makes money. Plan to buy near $1,150-$1,180, consider adding above 1205, aiming to retest prior highs.

Primary drivers

  • Sharp pullback now looks ready to bounce, offering a short-term entry window
  • New Buy rating to $1,385 could attract more buyers and media coverage soon
  • Password-sharing crackdown and ads help convert viewers into paying revenue
  • Big-name growth stocks are in favor, which can help lift the share price

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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