Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from October 5, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 3, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$291.40 Published $348.74 Target $319.61 Window close $321.59 Peak
$286.45 – $292.42Entry zone — fair-value band
$291.40Published — price the day we called it
$348.74Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$321.59Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$319.61Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 52% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$321.59
peak on January 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+10.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$319.61
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 5, 2025 – January 3, 2026

The thesis — published October 5, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$348.74
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$286.45 – $292.42
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$291.40
published October 5, 2025
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is a key supplier for AI chips. Recent checks say roughly 60% of its sales come from its most advanced chips, which shows strong demand and a durable edge. The price has run up, so consider small pullbacks near the recent average price instead of chasing. Keep an eye on political tensions and reliance on a few big customers. Base case is steady gains over the next 0-3 months with careful position sizing.

Primary drivers

  • Leads in cutting-edge chip-making that powers top phones and servers
  • Trend appears strong, with lots more buyers than usual in the market
  • Seen as a crucial supplier benefiting from the broad AI boom
  • Heavy sales from advanced chips highlight a durable edge vs. rivals

How it played out

TSM: the thesis partially played out

Lyra published TSM at $291.40 on 2025-10-05 for a short-term window ending 2026-01-03. The thesis expected 20% growth and pointed to cutting-edge chip-making, strong buyer interest, demand tied to artificial intelligence chips, and heavy sales from advanced chips.

The stock rose, but it did not reach the $348.74 target. Its peak was $321.59 on 2026-01-02, a 10.4% gain. It ended the window at $319.61. The thesis partially played out because the price moved in the expected direction, but it stayed below the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion. On 2025-12-12, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC was considering an upgrade for its second Japan fab to 4nm, while heavy equipment had been removed from the site.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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