Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) — closed signal from July 9, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 7, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 75 days.
The thesis — published July 9, 2025
Many big investors started buying TSM on July 8, and the price is still close to its recent average, so latecomers are not paying much extra. The firm controls about one-third of the world market and keeps more than half of each sales dollar as profit, which steadies earnings even while currency moves hurt a bit. Articles highlight a 44 percent jump in the last quarter, so feelings stay upbeat. Rising demand for new AI chips should help the stock drift toward 250-255 dollars within three months.
Primary drivers
- Unusually heavy buying by big funds is back, pointing to renewed interest
- AI computers need more 3-nm and 2-nm chips, so TSM can keep prices firm
- One-third global share and 53% profit margin give steady growth to 2026
- Stock already rose 44% last quarter, and news stays positive despite a target cut
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 75 days
Lyra published TSM at $231.24 on 2025-07-09, with 18% expected growth and a $271.28 target. The thesis pointed to heavy buying by big funds, demand for 3-nm and 2-nm chips tied to artificial intelligence computers, one-third global share, a 53% profit margin, and a 44% last-quarter rise.
Inside the 2025-07-09 to 2025-10-07 window, TSM reached the target in 75 days. The peak was $306.47 on 2025-10-06, with a 32.5% peak gain. It ended at $293.24. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On July 17, 2025, TSMC reported its 2025 Q2 results. On August 8, 2025, Investopedia reported TSMC's July revenue report, including a 22.5% revenue jump from the prior month and July revenue of NT$323.17 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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