Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) (TSM) — closed signal from October 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 1, 2026 — +3.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$288.44 – $293.41Entry zone — fair-value band

$293.86Published — price the day we called it

$363.40Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$313.13Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$303.89Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+3.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$303.89

last close inside the window, ended January 1, 2026

Peak price

$313.13

peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 3, 2025

Predicted growth

+24%

over the measurement window

Target price

$363.40

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$288.44 – $293.41

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$293.86

published October 3, 2025

Confidence

90%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC looks like a leader as demand for AI chips keeps rising. More people have been buying than usual, and the recent average price is climbing, showing a healthy uptrend. News that Groq plans 12+ data centers points to steady orders for TSMC's most advanced chips. Shares rose 26% last month. In a fairly upbeat market, buying dips near recent lows could work over the next 3 months. Risks: export limits and pauses in the chip cycle.

Primary drivers

Rising demand for TSMC's most advanced chips used in AI systems worldwide.
Lots more people are buying than usual, signaling strong interest.
The recent average price is rising, which tends to keep the uptrend intact.
New AI data center plans suggest steady orders for TSMC's most advanced chips.

How it played out

TSM: target was not reached inside the window

Lyra published TSM on 2025-10-03 at $293.86, with expected growth of 24% and a target of $363.40. The thesis pointed to demand for advanced chips used in artificial intelligence systems, unusually heavy buying, a rising recent average price, and data center plans that suggested steady orders.

Inside the window, TSM rose, but not enough. The peak was $313.13 on 2025-12-10, a 6.6% gain. It never reached the target. By 2026-01-01, it ended at $303.89. The thesis partially played out because the stock gained, but the published upside target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, AP reported that TSMC's quarterly net profit rose nearly 40% for July through September 2025. On 2025-12-29, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC's own 2nm page said N2 volume production had started in 4Q25 as planned.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals