Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. ADR (TSM) — closed signal from October 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 31, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$283.47 – $289.44Entry zone — fair-value band

$290.40Published — price the day we called it

$341.74Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$313.13Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$303.89Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$313.13

peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+7.8%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$303.89

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 2, 2025 – December 31, 2025

The thesis — published October 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$341.74

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$283.47 – $289.44

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$290.40

published October 2, 2025

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is a top maker of advanced chips for AI. The stock's trend is up, the recent average price is rising, and there has been lots more buying than usual. A big rally in chip stocks added over $200B in value this week, showing strong interest in the AI supply chain. Because the business is sturdy, pullbacks may be smaller than for rivals. It's wiser to buy dips as AI server demand and factory spending support orders in the next 3 months.

Primary drivers

Leading chip maker for AI with size and experience that lower costs
Upward price trend backed by heavier-than-usual trading activity
Recent chip rally is drawing fresh investor money to top names
Strong finances and execution may limit how much the stock pulls back

How it played out

TSM: target was not reached by Dec. 31

Lyra published TSM on Oct. 2 at 290.4 with an 18% expected gain and a 341.74 target. The thesis pointed to TSMC's role in advanced chips for artificial intelligence, an upward price trend, heavier-than-usual trading, fresh money going into top chip names, and strong finances that could limit pullbacks.

Inside the window, the stock rose, but it did not reach the target. Its peak was 313.13 on Dec. 10, a 7.8% gain. It ended the window at 303.89. The thesis partly played out on direction, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On Oct. 16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion. On Dec. 29, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC had started 2nm-class volume production in Q4 2025, citing the company's 2nm technology page.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals