Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from October 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 30, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$273.52 – $281.48Entry zone — fair-value band

$281.04Published — price the day we called it

$358.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$313.13Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$299.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 41% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$313.13

peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+11.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$299.58

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 1, 2025 – December 30, 2025

The thesis — published October 1, 2025

Predicted growth

+28%

over the measurement window

Target price

$358.76

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$273.52 – $281.48

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$281.04

published October 1, 2025

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC sits at the heart of making AI chips, leading in advanced manufacturing and chip packaging. Price momentum looks positive and the recent average price is trending up. ASML's strong month suggests chip tools are selling well, so factories can expand. Over the next 0-3 months, we plan to buy dips and add only when strength is clear.

Primary drivers

Leads in making and packaging the most advanced AI chips for many clients.
ASML's strong results hint tool supply is healthy, enabling factory expansion.
Price trend is up, recent average price rising, and buying is heavier.
Big, steady AI spending plans from customers keep future orders dependable.

How it played out

TSM: the 28% target was not reached

Lyra published TSM on 2025-10-01 at 281.04 for a short-term window ending 2025-12-30. The thesis expected 28% growth to 358.76. It pointed to TSMC's role in advanced artificial intelligence chip manufacturing and packaging, healthy tool supply, an upward price trend, heavier buying, and steady customer spending plans.

Inside the window, TSM rose, but it did not reach the target. The peak was 313.13 on 2025-12-10, a 11.4% gain. It never got there. The stock ended at 299.58 on 2025-12-30. The thesis partially played out on direction, but missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and said fourth-quarter revenue was expected between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion. On 2025-12-10, TSMC reported November sales of $11.06 billion, up 24.5% year over year in local currency and down 6.5% from October.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals