Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) — closed signal from September 30, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 29, 2025 — +8.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$270.54 – $280.48Entry zone — fair-value band

$276.53Published — price the day we called it

$333.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$313.13Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$300.92Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 63% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+8.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$300.92

last close inside the window, ended December 29, 2025

Peak price

$313.13

peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 30, 2025

Predicted growth

+21%

over the measurement window

Target price

$333.70

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$270.54 – $280.48

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$276.53

published September 30, 2025

Confidence

92%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks like a solid 3 month opportunity because the price dropped a lot and is starting to recover, with lots more people are buying than usual. Investor mood is still strong. On 9-30, Morgan Stanley raised its target, and KeyBanc flagged stronger 2025 demand for TSM's CoWoS parts, which can lift profits. Ramping advanced packaging should make near-term sales and earnings easier to see.

Primary drivers

AI demand is filling TSM's factories and advanced CoWoS packaging
Price fell too far, now buyers return and trading is heavier than usual
On 9-30, Morgan Stanley raised its target, which boosts confidence
Newer chip tech and packaging can raise profit on each unit sold

How it played out

TSM: the target was not reached

Lyra published TSM at 276.53 on 2025-09-30 with expected growth of 21%. The thesis pointed to a recent drop and recovery, heavier buying than usual, strong investor mood, Morgan Stanley's 9-30 target raise, KeyBanc's stronger 2025 demand view for CoWoS parts, and advanced packaging that could make near-term sales and earnings easier to see.

Inside the window, TSM rose but stayed below the target of 333.70. It peaked at 313.13 on 2025-12-10, a 13.2% gain. The target was never reached. The stock ended at 300.92 on 2025-12-29. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported July-September net profit of 452.3 billion new Taiwan dollars. AP reported that revenue rose 30% year over year. On 2025-12-29, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC had started volume production of its N2 process in 4Q25 as planned.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals