Track record · closed signal

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) — closed signal from September 30, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 29, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

STOK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$24.90 Published $32.36 Target $32.18 Window close $38.69 Peak
$24.00 – $25.60Entry zone — fair-value band
$24.90Published — price the day we called it
$32.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$32.18Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 8 days.

Peak price
$38.69
peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+55.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$32.18
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
8
Window
September 30, 2025 – December 29, 2025

The thesis — published September 30, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$32.36
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$24.00 – $25.60
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$24.90
published September 30, 2025
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Stoke could move higher because strong Dravet results, shared with Biogen, support its lead drug and outside attention is growing. The mood is very upbeat, and the recent average price trend looks firm even if a short-term signal is soft, so pullbacks may be chances to enter. On 9-2, data on zorevunersen hinted it could be the first treatment to change the disease. With careful position size, steady interest and timely updates could lift shares over the next 3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Strong Dravet study results with Biogen support confidence in the lead drug.
  • Firm recent average price and buying interest suggest demand remains solid.
  • Very upbeat investor mood could attract more attention and new buyers.
  • Upcoming updates may help the market revalue the stock in coming months.

How it played out

STOK: target reached in 8 days

Lyra published STOK at $24.90 on 2025-09-30 with a short-term view for 30% growth. The thesis pointed to strong Dravet study results with Biogen, firm recent price trends, buying interest, upbeat investor mood, and possible updates that could help the market revalue the stock over the next 3 months.

Inside the window, STOK reached the $32.36 target in 8 days. It peaked at $38.69 on 2025-10-16, with a peak gain of 55.4%. By 2025-12-29, it ended at $32.18. The thesis played out early, then the stock gave back part of the move but stayed near the target at the close.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-04, Stoke released third-quarter results, according to Investors.com. The article said revenue rose 117% to $10.6 million, while the loss was $0.65 per share. On 2025-12-16, Investors.com said Stoke was collaborating with Biogen on zorevunersen and that the stock was near a $38.69 buy point.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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