Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — closed signal from September 29, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 28, 2025 — +5.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$214.00 – $223.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$220.50Published — price the day we called it

$260.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$258.60Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$232.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 96% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+5.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+17.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$232.52

last close inside the window, ended December 28, 2025

Peak price

$258.60

peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 29, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$260.19

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$214.00 – $223.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$220.50

published September 29, 2025

Confidence

63%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon looks due for a short-term bounce after a sharp slide, while many investors still feel positive. Recent news adds fuel: a broader Kroger delivery tie-up through DoorDash, an Amazon-backed IPO, and approval to run power lines to a new AWS data center. Over the next 3 months, consider buys near the recent average price and watch ad budgets, shopper trends, and how sensitive the stock is to interest rates.

Primary drivers

Big recent drop, but upbeat investor mood hints at a near-term rebound
New deals and partnerships widen Amazon's reach across services and retail
New AWS data center approvals can strengthen steady cash coming in
Its huge size and active trading can help the stock recover faster

How it played out

AMZN: target was not reached after a 17.3% peak

Lyra published AMZN on 2025-09-29 at $220.50 for a short-term window ending 2025-12-28. The thesis expected 18% growth. It pointed to a sharp recent drop, upbeat investor mood, new deals and partnerships, AWS data center approvals, Amazon's size, and active trading as reasons a rebound could happen.

Inside the window, AMZN rose to $258.60 on 2025-11-03, a 17.3% peak gain. That stayed below the $260.19 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $232.52. The thesis mostly played out, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-28, Amazon said it would cut about 14,000 corporate roles. On 2025-10-30, Amazon reported third-quarter sales of $180.2 billion, and AP reported AWS grew 20%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AMZN signals