Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) (TSM) — closed signal from September 29, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 28, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 55% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 29, 2025
Buying interest is stronger than usual, and the price trend looks healthy as AI demand builds. Company updates say chips for high-power computing and AI made up 60 percent of Q2 sales. The U.S. is pushing for more local chip plants, showing TSMC's strategic role. Over the next 3 months, price dips can be chances to add as factories ramp and the sales mix supports profits, while policy news is the main risk to watch.
Primary drivers
- AI and high-power chip sales are rising, lifting revenue and profit margins
- Price trend looks firm, with buyers returning when the stock pulls back
- Building more chip capacity near the U.S. could bring incentives and steadier orders
- Leading chip maker with scale, advanced tech, and reliable demand from major clients
How it played out
TSM: target was missed, but the stock still rose
Lyra published TSM on 2025-09-29 at 276.61 with a 24% expected gain. The thesis pointed to stronger than usual buying interest, a healthy price trend, artificial intelligence and high-power chip demand, U.S. plant policy, added capacity, and TSMC's scale with major clients.
Inside the window, the stock rose but never reached the 342.08 target. It peaked at 313.13 on 2025-12-10, with a 13.2% peak gain. It ended at 302.84. The thesis partly played out because the price rose and held above publication, but the target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and gross margin of 59.5%. On 2025-12-12, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC was considering an upgrade of its second Japan fab to 4nm, while equipment needs for 2026 had been paused.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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