Track record · closed signal

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) — closed signal from September 29, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 28, 2025 — +31.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

STOK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$24.33 Published $32.85 Target $31.92 Window close $38.69 Peak
$23.70 – $24.90Entry zone — fair-value band
$24.33Published — price the day we called it
$32.85Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$31.92Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 15 days.

At window close
+31.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+59%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$31.92
last close inside the window, ended December 28, 2025
Peak price
$38.69
peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
15

The thesis — published September 29, 2025

Predicted growth
+35%
over the measurement window
Target price
$32.85
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$23.70 – $24.90
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$24.33
published September 29, 2025
Confidence
86%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

STOK has been climbing steadily and recently hit prices near its yearly highs. News highlights an 82% jump in under two months, and recent drug approvals in neurology have lifted interest in this area. If the price dips toward its recent average price, that can offer a fresh entry for a 3 month trade. Biotech headlines can swing the stock, but with strong trend and active buyers, the move can continue.

Primary drivers

  • Strong uptrend with steady buying interest and price strength near yearly highs
  • Very upbeat attention from investors and media, boosting visibility and demand
  • Biotech interest and this drug pipeline draw investors as key trial news nears
  • Plan to buy dips during a strong climb, aiming for practical, lower-risk entries

How it played out

STOK: target reached in 15 days

Lyra published STOK at 24.33 on 2025-09-29 for a short-term window ending 2025-12-28. The thesis expected 35% growth toward 32.85. It pointed to a strong uptrend, steady buying interest, price strength near yearly highs, upbeat investor and media attention, biotech interest around the drug pipeline, and a plan to buy dips during a strong climb.

Inside the window, STOK reached the target in 15 days. The peak was 38.69 on 2025-10-16, with a peak gain of 59%. It ended the window at 31.92. The published thesis played out, and the move went beyond the target before settling below the peak.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-16, Investor's Business Daily reported that Stoke had released third-quarter results on 2025-11-04. The report said revenue rose 117% year over year to $10.6 million, while the loss widened to $0.65 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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