Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from September 28, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 27, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 42% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 28, 2025
Microsoft is benefiting from the rush to use AI, which is boosting demand for its Azure cloud. Recent trading shows buyers stepping in, and activity is heavier than usual, hinting at growing interest in another move higher. News of large AI deals backs this up. The stock is well liked but not cheap, so buying on dips makes more sense. Spending trends across the industry remain firm, supporting the case. If the market stays healthy, a return toward recent highs in a few months looks reasonable.
Primary drivers
- Buying strength is rising, with far more trades than usual lately.
- Azure is tied to AI needs, so more AI use means more Azure sales.
- Investors remain positive even though the stock is priced for quality.
- Big companies are attracting cash when markets are willing to take risk.
How it played out
MSFT: target missed after an 8.3% peak gain
Lyra published MSFT on 2025-09-28 at 510.5 with an expected 20% move. The thesis pointed to stronger buying, heavier activity, Azure demand tied to artificial intelligence use, investor appetite for large technology companies, and a view that a move back toward recent highs was reasonable if the market stayed healthy.
Inside the window, MSFT rose to a peak of 552.69 on 2025-10-28, a peak gain of 8.3%. It stayed below the 611.46 target and never reached it. By 2025-12-27, it ended at 487.71. The thesis partially played out, but the target missed.
What happened during the window
On October 29, 2025, Microsoft reported first-quarter earnings, with revenue of $77.7 billion and Azure growth of 40%. On November 18, 2025, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Anthropic announced a partnership in which Anthropic committed to buy $30 billion of Azure compute capacity, while Microsoft planned to invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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