Track record · closed signal

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) — closed signal from September 28, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 27, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

STWD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$17.76 – $18.12Entry zone — fair-value band

$19.06Published — price the day we called it

$19.93Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$19.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$18.06Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 1% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$19.08

peak on September 29, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+0.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$18.06

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

September 28, 2025 – December 27, 2025

The thesis — published September 28, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$19.93

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$17.76 – $18.12

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$19.06

published September 28, 2025

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Starwood looks beaten down, which can set up a short-term bounce while still paying income. The firm raised $500M in bonds to fund green and social projects, giving it more breathing room. Recent price momentum has been soft, so buying dips with clear limits helps manage risk. If interest rates ease and commercial real estate headlines stay calm, a 3-month recovery toward typical levels is possible.

Primary drivers

Price looks washed out, so a short-term rebound becomes more likely
$500M green and social bonds give extra cash and more flexible funding
Reliable dividend history tends to draw income-focused investors
Falling interest rates usually lift REIT values and borrowing economics

How it played out

STWD: the target was not reached

Lyra published STWD at $19.06 for a short-term window from 2025-09-28 to 2025-12-27. The thesis expected 10% growth toward $19.93. It pointed to a washed-out price setup, $500M in green and social bonds, dividend history that could draw income-focused investors, and the chance that falling interest rates could help REIT values and borrowing economics.

Inside the window, STWD peaked at $19.08 on 2025-09-29, a 0.1% gain. That stayed below the $19.93 target. It never got there. By 2025-12-27, the stock ended at $18.06. The thesis missed its price target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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