Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — closed signal from September 28, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 27, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$215.00 – $221.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$219.78Published — price the day we called it

$268.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$258.60Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$232.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$258.60

peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+17.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$232.52

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

September 28, 2025 – December 27, 2025

The thesis — published September 28, 2025

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$268.13

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$215.00 – $221.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$219.78

published September 28, 2025

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon looks pressured and short-term sellers seem worn out, which can set up a rebound. The company is still pushing logistics upgrades, like testing GM's BrightDrop electric vans, and strong demand for AI computing helps its cloud arm, AWS. Sentiment is constructive even though recent average price and overall momentum are weak. Plan to buy in parts over the next 3 months aiming for a move back toward typical price levels.

Primary drivers

Sharp recent drop suggests sellers may be done, opening room for a bounce.
AI computing needs drive more business for AWS, a key profit engine.
Testing BrightDrop electric vans could make deliveries cheaper and faster.
Positive mood in the market can help fuel a recovery from recent weakness.

How it played out

AMZN: target was not reached

Lyra published AMZN at 219.78 on 2025-09-28 with a short-term thesis for 22% growth toward 268.13. The thesis pointed to worn-out sellers after a sharp recent drop, stronger AWS demand from artificial intelligence computing, logistics upgrades tied to BrightDrop electric vans, and constructive market mood despite weak recent price action.

Inside the window, AMZN rose to 258.60 on 2025-11-03, a 17.7% peak gain. That stayed below 268.13, so the target was never reached. By 2025-12-27, it ended at 232.52. The thesis partially played out, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-03, Business Insider reported a $38 billion AWS partnership with OpenAI. On 2025-11-24, The Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon planned to invest $50 billion in data centers for U.S. government cloud customers.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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