Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) — closed signal from September 28, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 27, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 68% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 28, 2025
TSM makes the chips behind AI, and demand is stacked up. There is over $1T of AI cloud orders waiting to be built, and Synopsys is expanding design work with TSMC, supporting multi quarter orders. A Samsung deal shows factory space is scarce, which helps TSM. Momentum looks healthy, with lots more buyers than usual and a rising recent average price. If the market stays fairly positive, buying dips could aim for prior highs in about 3 months.
Primary drivers
- Over $1T of AI cloud orders waiting, keeping chip demand strong
- Synopsys expands design work with TSMC, supporting steady orders
- Buying interest is stronger than usual and recent average price climbs
- Most advanced chip capacity is tight, helping TSM keep firm pricing
How it played out
TSM: thesis rose but missed the target
Lyra published TSM at $272.62 on 2025-09-28 with 22% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence cloud orders, Synopsys design work with TSMC, stronger buying interest, a rising recent average price, and tight advanced chip capacity.
Inside the window, TSM rose to a peak of $313.13 on 2025-12-10, a 14.9% gain. It stayed below the $331.71 target and never reached it. The signal ended at $302.84 on 2025-12-27. The verdict was partial: the direction was right, but the published target did not play out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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