Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — closed signal from September 27, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 26, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$218.00 – $222.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$219.78Published — price the day we called it

$263.74Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$258.60Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$232.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$258.60

peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+17.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$232.52

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

September 27, 2025 – December 26, 2025

The thesis — published September 27, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$263.74

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$218.00 – $222.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$219.78

published September 27, 2025

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon looks temporarily beaten down for a company this large, which can set up a rebound. Short-term momentum is still weak, but the long-term story is strong: the cloud business has a big potential customer base through 2030 and makes solid profits. Recent news reinforced this view. Consider buying near 218-222 and adding if the price closes above 225 as the trend improves over 1-3 months. Stay mindful of broader market and economy swings.

Primary drivers

Price looks washed out, suggesting sellers may be running out of steam
AWS makes strong profits and has a very large potential customer base
Recent news and mood around cloud growth are turning more positive
Plan to add only if price action shows steady improvement over time

How it played out

AMZN: target was not reached

Lyra published AMZN at 219.78 on 2025-09-27 with a short-term thesis for 20% growth. The target was 263.74. The thesis pointed to a washed-out price, weak short-term momentum, strong AWS profits, a large cloud customer base through 2030, improving cloud mood, and a plan to add only if price action improved.

Inside the 2025-09-27 to 2025-12-26 window, AMZN peaked at 258.60 on 2025-11-03, with a peak gain of 17.7%. It stayed below the target. It ended at 232.52. The thesis partially played out, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-30, Amazon reported third-quarter results. Business Insider reported AWS sales growth of 20.2% year over year. Axios reported total global sales of $180.2 billion and said Amazon projected fourth-quarter sales of up to $213 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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