Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) — closed signal from September 27, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 26, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 1% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 27, 2025
This income-focused stock looks set for a possible rebound after heavy selling. Signs point to sellers running out of steam, even though the recent average price is drifting down and momentum has been weak. The company just raised $500M in green bonds, showing steady access to funding and wider investor interest. Consider starting near the shown range with a clear exit plan, and add if buying clearly improves as rates settle in 1-3 months.
Primary drivers
- Heavy recent selling hints the drop may be over and a rebound could start
- Raised $500M in eco-labeled bonds, proving lenders still back them
- High dividend can attract income-focused investors seeking steady cash
- If interest rates calm down, the market could value the shares higher
How it played out
STWD: thesis stayed below target
Lyra published STWD at $19.06 on September 27, 2025, with expected growth of 10%. The target was $19.93. The thesis pointed to heavy recent selling, a possible rebound, $500M in eco-labeled bonds, income-focused demand, and a chance that calmer rates could support a higher share price.
Inside the window, STWD peaked at $19.08 on September 29, 2025. That was a 0.1% peak gain, and it stayed below the target. The window ended at $18.06. The thesis did not play out in price terms.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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