Track record · closed signal

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) — closed signal from September 27, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 26, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

STOK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$24.14 Published $32.59 Target $31.92 Window close $38.69 Peak
$23.60 – $24.20Entry zone — fair-value band
$24.14Published — price the day we called it
$32.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$31.92Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 17 days.

Peak price
$38.69
peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+60.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$31.92
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
17
Window
September 27, 2025 – December 26, 2025

The thesis — published September 27, 2025

Predicted growth
+35%
over the measurement window
Target price
$32.59
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$23.60 – $24.20
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$24.14
published September 27, 2025
Confidence
90%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Stoke looks attractive because good September results for its Dravet drug showed lasting seizure cuts and thinking improvements, keeping buyers interested. Price trends are getting healthier, with the recent average price edging up and early signs of momentum improving. A slower trend measure often turns later, which is normal. With more attention on biotech lately, holding near today's range could set up gains over the next 1-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Strong September results for the Dravet treatment show lasting benefits
  • Recent average price is rising, showing the trend is getting healthier
  • Investor interest is high and the business case looks strong and steady
  • Biotech has been getting steadier buying lately, per recent headlines

How it played out

STOK: target reached in 17 days

Lyra published STOK at 24.14 on 2025-09-27 for a short-term window ending 2025-12-26. The thesis expected 35% growth to 32.59. It pointed to September Dravet treatment results, a rising recent average price, high investor interest, and steadier biotech buying in recent headlines.

Inside the window, the stock rose past the target and peaked at 38.69 on 2025-10-16, with a peak gain of 60.3%. It reached the target in 17 days. By the end of the window, STOK was at 31.92. The thesis played out, although the final price was back below the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-16, Investor's Business Daily reported that Stoke had released third-quarter results on 2025-11-04, with revenue up 117% to $10.6 million and a loss of $0.65 per share. The same article said Stoke was collaborating with Biogen on zorevunersen for Dravet syndrome.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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