Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from September 27, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 26, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 65% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 27, 2025
TSM makes some of the most advanced chips for many top designers. Its price trend has been steady and up, and there has been lots more buying than usual. New this week: Synopsys is expanding work with TSM on N3, N2, and A16 chip designs, supporting clear tech leadership and customer loyalty. With AI demand spreading across devices and data centers, strong business health and positive sentiment could lift the stock over the next 1-3 months.
Primary drivers
- Deeper Synopsys partnership on N3, N2, A16 supports tech leadership
- Price trend is up, and the recent average price keeps climbing steadily
- Expanding AI demand boosts orders across phones, PCs, and data centers
- Solid finances and upbeat investor mood add support for future gains
How it played out
TSM: target missed after a 14.9% peak gain
Lyra published TSM on 2025-09-27 at $272.62. The thesis expected 23% growth toward $334.42 over a short-term window. It pointed to deeper Synopsys work on N3, N2, and A16, an uptrend in the price, expanding artificial intelligence demand across phones, PCs, and data centers, solid finances, and upbeat investor mood.
Inside the window, TSM rose but stayed below the target. The peak was $313.13 on 2025-12-10, a 14.9% gain. It never reached $334.42. The stock ended at $302.84 on 2025-12-26. The thesis partially played out, but the published target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and net income of NT$452.30 billion. On 2025-10-16, AP reported that the same quarter showed a record net profit of 452.3 billion new Taiwan dollars.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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